Predictability of Financial Crises:

The Impact of Fundamental, Policy-induced and Institutional Vulnerabilities on China Compared to Other Emerging Markets

This book develops an integrated framework that extends conventional early warning analysis beyond macro-financial fundamentals to include policy-induced and institutional vulnerabilities. It applies the framework to China’s 2015–16 exchange-rate turbulence and its experience relative to other emerging markets.

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Chief Witch: Yes that’s right.

Macbeth: I understand you can foretell the future.

 BBC Radio Programme, 1968

 Thou this be madness, yet there is method in it.

Hamlet, Shakespeare, 1601