Selected Resources
2025-11-20 — From Risk to Resilience: What Finance Can Learn from the Futures CFA Institute, Enterprising Investor | Article How multiple plausible futures can complement forecasts and stress tests when technology, policy or geopolitics breaks historical patterns. URL: https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/blogs/enterprising-investor/2025/from-risk-to-resilience-what-finance-can-learn-from-the-futures
2025-07-19 — How the Trajectory of Asset Prices Can Predict FX Movements CFA Institute, Enterprising Investor | Article How path-signature methods capture the shape of price trajectories and may improve FX and financial stress forecasts. URL: https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/blogs/enterprising-investor/2025/how-the-trajectory-of-asset-prices-can-predict-fx-movements
2025-03-03 — Abnormal FX Returns and Liquidity-Based Machine Learning Approaches CFA Institute, Enterprising Investor | Article Two approaches to FX analysis: predicting extreme returns with liquidity and macro variables, and identifying separate high- and low-liquidity regimes. URL: https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/blogs/enterprising-investor/2025/abnormal-fx-returns-and-liquidity-based-machine-learning-approaches
2025-02-21 — How to enhance geopolitical risk assessment using this combined strategy World Economic Forum | Article Combines scenario planning, identification of emerging worlds and AI-based outlier and breakpoint detection into a forward-looking geopolitical-risk framework. URL: https://www.weforum.org/stories/global-risks/how-to-enhance-geopolitical-risk-assessment-using-combined-strategy/
2024-10-15 — Deriving options through scenario planning Saïd Business School, University of Oxford | Blog article How exploring multiple plausible futures, rather than trying to predict one future, can generate practical strategic options. URL: https://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/oxford-experience/blogs/sebastian-petric/deriving-options-through-scenario-planning
2024-10-09 — Times of Insecurity: China’s Approach Towards Economic Security LSE China Dialogues | Blog article How successive crises have encouraged China to rethink resilience and economic security. URL: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/cff/2024/10/09/times-of-insecurity-chinas-approach-towards-economic-security/
2024-09-22 — Noise Filtering, Statistical Ideals, and Residual Analysis in Financial Markets LinkedIn | Long-form article How filtered price series and residual analysis can reveal mean-reversion signals, model misspecification and regime changes. URL: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/noise-filtering-statistical-ideals-residual-analysis-financial-j497f
2024-09-19 — Classification vs. Regression in Crisis Prediction CQF Institute | Member article A member-only article comparing classification and regression approaches to financial crisis prediction.
URL: https://www.cqfinstitute.org/articles
2024-09-17 — Identifying Crises and the Economic Significance of Avoiding Them CFA Institute, Enterprising Investor | Article Presents a continuous, clustering-based method for identifying equity drawdowns and explains why avoiding severe downturns improves risk-adjusted performance. URL: https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/blogs/enterprising-investor/2024/identifying-crises-and-the-economic-significance-of-avoiding-them
2024-08-05 — Scenario Planning, Foresight, and the Power of Imagination: Navigating an Uncertain Future CFA Institute, Enterprising Investor | Article Contrasts forecasting with imaginative scenario planning and shows how plausible futures can make investment strategies more resilient. URL: https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/blogs/enterprising-investor/2024/scenario-planning-foresight-and-the-power-of-imagination-navigating-an-uncertain-future
2024-06-29 — Embracing Knightian Uncertainty: The Power of Strategic Foresight LinkedIn | Long-form article Combines scenario planning and forecasting into an adaptive framework for investment decisions under genuinely unquantifiable uncertainty. URL: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/embracing-knightian-uncertainty-power-strategic-foresight-petric-hjt4f
2024-06-11 — FX Bubbles: Through the Lens of Shiller and Sornette CFA Institute, Enterprising Investor | Article
Applies behavioural-finance and bubble-model insights to foreign exchange.
2024-06-05 — AI may soon predict financial crises before they take root World Economic Forum | Article How machine learning may provide earlier crisis warnings, alongside the need for accountable, transparent and inclusive AI governance. URL: https://www.weforum.org/stories/emerging-technologies/ai-may-soon-be-predicting-financial-crises-before-they-take-root/
2024-05-13 — Leveraging AI to Identify and Predict Financial Crises CFA Institute, Enterprising Investor | Article Research with Michael Hanke and Merlin Bartel using unsupervised identification and predictive machine learning to detect and forecast US banking crises. URL: https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/blogs/enterprising-investor/2024/leveraging-ai-to-identify-and-predict-financial-crises
2023-05-02 — Perceptions are not always reality LSE China Dialogues | Blog article Why the renminbi remains far from displacing the US dollar as the world’s leading reserve currency. URL: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/cff/2023/05/02/perceptions-are-not-always-reality/
2022-10-27 — Financial crisis predictions in emerging markets: Then and now LSE International Development | Blog article Updates the financial crisis vulnerability framework by adding sustainability and ESG considerations to fundamentals, policy and institutions.
2022-10-20 — Is a financial crisis around the corner? Saïd Business School, University of Oxford | Blog article Distinguishes recession risk from financial crisis risk and explains the interaction between vulnerability and triggering events.
URL: https://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/oxford-experience/blogs/sebastian-petric/financial-crisis-around-corner
2022-10-20 — Can Machine Learning Help Predict the Next Financial Crisis? CFA Institute, Enterprising Investor | Article Compares classical crisis probability models with machine learning and clustering methods that can identify hidden structures in financial data.
2022-05-23 — An increased role for private sector: Mozambique’s new regulatory policy in the off-grid energy sector Brookings Institution, Africa in Focus | Article How Mozambique’s off-grid regulation could attract private investment and accelerate universal electricity access. URL: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/an-increased-role-for-private-sector-mozambiques-new-regulatory-policy-in-the-off-grid-energy-sector/
2022-03-11 — Time-Varying Risk Premia: Cochrane’s “Discount Rates” CFA Institute, Enterprising Investor | Article A review of John Cochrane’s argument that discount rates, expected returns and risk premia vary across time, assets and the business cycle. URL: https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/blogs/enterprising-investor/2022/time-varying-risk-premia-cochranes-discount-rates
2022-03-07 — Predicting financial crises in emerging markets: Lessons from China LSE International Development | Blog article Links Chinese market volatility to the country’s unfinished transition from a planned to a market economy and its evolving vulnerabilities. URL: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/internationaldevelopment/2022/03/07/predicting-financial-crises-in-emerging-markets-lessons-from-china/
2022-02-17 — History as the consistent and determining driver of Russia’s strategy LSE International History | Blog article How Vladimir Putin’s interpretation of recent history has shaped Russian foreign policy and strategy. URL: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lseih/2022/02/17/history-as-the-consistent-and-determining-driver-of-russias-strategy/
2022-02-10 — Tactical Asset Allocation: The Flexibility Advantage CFA Institute, Enterprising Investor | Article How temporary deviations from strategic asset allocation can add value as monetary policy and business cycle conditions change. URL: https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/blogs/enterprising-investor/2022/tactical-asset-allocation-the-flexibility-advantage
2021-08-03 — The rules of the game matter Saïd Business School, University of Oxford | Blog article An institutional analysis of China’s state-capitalist system, its incentives and the common prosperity agenda.
URL: https://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/oxford-experience/blogs/sebastian-petric/rules-game-matter
2021-02-16 — Globalisation in 2021 LSE International Development | Blog article An assessment of protectionist pressures and the pandemic-era need for greater international cooperation. URL: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/internationaldevelopment/2021/02/16/globalisation-in-2021/
2020-12-16 — Improved governance in emerging markets – the case of China LSE International Development | Blog article Why improved governance will become more important as China’s economy opens and its growth model changes. URL: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/internationaldevelopment/2020/12/16/improved-governance-in-emerging-markets-the-case-of-china/
2020-12-04 — Impact investing: an entrepreneurial project at the University of Oxford Saïd Business School, University of Oxford | Blog article An Oxford entrepreneurship project on combining measurable social impact with financial return. URL: https://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/oxford-experience/blogs/sebastian-petric/impact-investing-entrepreneurial-project-university-oxford
2020-10-15 — Uncovering a hidden dimension Saïd Business School, University of Oxford | Blog article Introduces a three-part framework for financial crisis vulnerability and proposes ESG and sustainability risk as an additional hidden dimension.
URL: https://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/oxford-experience/blogs/sebastian-petric/uncovering-hidden-dimension
2020-05-14 — Climate finance: Financing the great transition Kellogg College, University of Oxford | Blog article An explanation of climate finance and the incentives needed to mobilise private investment in mitigation, adaptation and energy access.
URL: https://www.kellogg.ox.ac.uk/blog/climate-finance-financing-the-great-transition/
2020-02-11 — Building Ukraine for the future: strengthening governance and addressing corruption LSE International Development | Blog article Why stronger institutions, lower corruption and a more inclusive state are essential to Ukraine’s economic and political future.
2019-11-15 — The impact of sustainable finance on the African Continent LSE International Development | Blog article How public incentives and development finance can mobilise private capital for sustainable African projects.
2019-11-14 — Three decades of economic transformation in Eastern Europe: From plan to market Emerging Europe / originally Discover CEE | Article A review of transition recessions, liberalisation and privatisation in Eastern Europe after 1989.
2019-10 — The Current Debate on China’s Rise Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), Monthly Report No. 10/2019 | Article An assessment of the economic and geopolitical dimensions of China’s rise and growing US–China tensions.
URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/monthly-report-no-10-2019-p-5049.html
2019-09-12 — Predictability of Financial Crises: EMBA student Sebastian Petric explains his new book Kellogg College, University of Oxford | Author feature An introduction to a framework combining fundamental, policy-induced and institutional vulnerabilities, applied to China and other emerging markets.
URL: https://www.kellogg.ox.ac.uk/blog/predictability-of-financial-crises/
2019-02-21 — Policy Experimentation in China LSE International Development | Blog article How China used Special Economic Zones and gradual policy experimentation to test reforms before applying them more widely.
URL: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/internationaldevelopment/2019/02/21/policy-experimentation-in-china/